Preview: UFC 318 ‘Holloway vs. Poirier 3’
Kopylov vs. Costa
Middleweights
Roman Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. Paulo Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC)BETTING ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)
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Instead, Costa delivered one of the most disappointing championship performances in recent memory, accomplishing little and then blaming his showing on a wine hangover. That just about sums up the unserious nature of Costa’s career since his one and only title shot, as he has been an entertaining personality while also backing out of fights constantly and delivering inconsistent performances when he does show up. Costa’s first post-Adesanya fight saw him take on Marvin Vettori, but only after he forced the fight up to light heavyweight due to an apparent lack of training. That, in turn, made it a surprise when Costa held his own for five high-paced rounds. A win over Luke Rockhold was much tougher than it needed to be, and after missing all of 2023, Costa suddenly had his best performance in years, putting a few scares into Robert Whittaker in a hard-fought loss. Naturally, it gave way to another particularly flat showing against Sean Strickland just a few months later. Even this pairing against Kopylov has had its issues. It was initially slated for June before being postponed due to Costa’s health, so who knows how he shows up against the rising Russian talent.
Kopylov has done an excellent job of reviving a UFC career that seemed dead on arrival, as injuries and visa issues limited him to just two appearances—both unimpressive losses—in his first three years on the roster. Kopylov got by on the Russian regional scene as a high-volume striker who started slow but eventually won wars of attrition, a game plan that never got going against UFC-level athletes in those first two trips to the Octagon. Kopylov eventually adjusted, sitting down on his punches enough to sacrifice some of that volume for power, turning him into enough of a threat to knock out five of his last seven opponents. Kopylov still has his weak points, as Anthony Hernandez took care of him handily on the mat, and the Russian isn’t particularly impressive when forced to move backwards. However, he can hang with anyone in the division when given his type of fight.
Of course, how much Kopylov can get his type of fight here depends on how Costa shows up, which remains an open question. A peak version of Costa could both keep Kopylov moving backwards and land the hardest shots of the fight; a flatter version might still have a shot-for-shot power advantage but is likely to let Kopylov gain steam and clearly win the back half of this bout. Kopylov is clearly the safer bet, even though Costa could make this quite interesting if he shows up in strong form. The pick is Kopylov via decision.
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Holloway vs. Poirier
Kopylov vs. Costa
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Ige vs. Freire
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The Prelims
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