Preview: UFC 319 Prelims

Lightweights

Chase Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) vs. Alexander Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)

Hooper appears ready for another step up in competition. He was an interesting curiosity upon his official UFC debut in 2019. A talented grappler signed to a developmental contract at age 18, “The Dream” looked like he could cause some issues for the featherweight division as he worked his way up the ladder. However, Hooper quickly hit a ceiling that raised a lot of red flags about the future of his career, alternating wins and losses while taking a beating even in his victories, often surviving only thanks to the durability that his youth provided. After a particularly rough shellacking provided by Steve Garcia, Hooper moved up to lightweight, where he has suddenly been able to put things together. Hooper’s striking is still far from a standout skill on its own, but his size and newfound confidence in his ability on the feet have made him much more effective in pressuring his opponents and getting things to where he’s at his best. Hooper’s matchmaking at lightweight has also allowed a solid progression, going from fellow grapplers to one-dimensional strikers before taking on older veterans Clay Guida and Jim Miller in his last two fights. With that said, it’s clearly time for the more complete test that Hooper gets here in Hernandez.

Hernandez has seemingly settled in as a completely solid lightweight. It is unfortunately a far cry from the highs he experienced early in his UFC career, but it is also a nice recovery from some of the low points that “The Great Ape” has experienced. Hernandez announced himself with a shocking 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut, following that up with a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier to cap off 2018 as one of the UFC’s top prospects. Hernandez’s first fight of 2019 saw his hard-charging style get completely torn apart by Donald Cerrone, and he never seemed to truly recover. Hernandez could still obliterate lower-level opposition but also tended to crumble in the face of any extended adversity over the next few years. Thanks to his athleticism and some clear mental work, Hernandez now simply tires rather than completely implodes whenever times get tough, which is enough for him to put together some decent results against the middle of the lightweight division; and it makes for a fascinating fight against Hooper. Hernandez is the first fighter in a while who seemingly can provide some resistance to Hooper on the mat while having the capability of blasting him on the feet. However, the longer this fight goes, the more Hooper figures to be drowning Hernandez in pace and pressure while working his way towards a victory. The read is that Hooper can now absorb things well enough to drag Hernandez into his type of fight. So while acknowledging that there’s a clear chance that Hernandez can blow this fight wide open, the pick is Hooper via third-round submission.



Jump To »
Green vs. Ferreira
Oleksiejczuk vs. Meerschaert
Godinez vs. Andrade
Hooper vs. Hernandez
Barboza vs. Klose
Battle vs. Ruziboev
Silva vs. Barbosa
Sezinando vs. Donchenko
Idiris vs. Morales