Preview: UFC Vegas 109 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Gabriella Fernandes (10-3, 2-2 UFC) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-2, 2-6 UFC)

Odds: Fernandes (-400); Stoliarenko (+325)

Fernandes and Stoliarenko have both regrouped after some rough going in the UFC and meet here in a clash of women suddenly fighting pretty well, or fighting to their own best advantage, at least.

Fernandes arrived in the UFC two and a half years ago as a promising flyweight prospect with a Legacy Fighting Alliance belt and a long win streak, then lost badly in her first two fights in the Octagon. In both cases, Fernandes’ opponents took advantage of what was perhaps the worst takedown defense in the promotion, but while Jasmine Jasudavicius was a Top 10 talent, a huge flyweight and an outstanding wrestler, Tereza Bleda was none of those things and made it look almost as easy.

Since the Bleda fight, “Gabi” has bounced back with a pair of wins, but it is fair to ask how much of that is due to her own improvement and how much was simply matchmaking, as neither Carli Judice nor Cong Wang was inclined to test the Brazilian’s sprawl. If she can get past Stoliarenko on Saturday, it should go a long way toward answering some of those questions.

Stoliarenko is as close to a pure specialist as you are likely to find in today’s UFC, as she is not only a grappler by inclination but a devotee of one technique: 10 career wins, 10 armbar submissions. Her 2-6 record across two separate stints with the promotion is an indicator of the general failure of specialists in modern MMA, but to be fair, she has looked better in the last couple of years, especially since dropping from 135 to 125 pounds.

Stoliarenko’s struggles have always come down to her being a poor athlete and offensive wrestler. She is a willing striker, throwing basic combinations with good volume and surprising power, but ultimately she wants—and needs—to get her opponent onto the mat, and she lacks reliable ways to achieve that.

Those limitations have seen Stoliarenko get stuck on the feet and pelted for 15 minutes or reduced to trying low-percentage rolling takedowns and guard pulls, only to be punished by savvy foes. Dropping to flyweight has helped; while her speed deficit has been exacerbated, she was big and strong even at bantamweight, and against flyweights she may be better able to brute-force her way into clinch takedowns that leave her less vulnerable.

Any time I preview a fight with a wide betting line—say -300 or greater—I usually start from the inverse proposition, asking, “OK, if the upset does happen, what will it probably look like?” Sometimes it’s difficult to picture, which is usually an answer in itself. In this case, even if the line rightfully favors Fernandes, there is a clear and demonstrable route to victory for the underdog. Stoliarenko wants—needs—to get Fernandes down, and unlike Fernandes’ last two opponents, she will absolutely try.

The big question here, again, is whether Fernandes’ takedown defense has improved. The pick here is that it has, at least enough to rebuff Stoliarenko’s clumsy efforts. Stoliarenko is tough, has shown good cardio and, again, is surprisingly effective as a striker, but she should run into a lot of counters trying to get her hands on her foe. The pick is Fernandes by decision.



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Walker vs. Cerqueira
Smith vs. Kazama
Edwards vs. Cachoeira
Medic vs. Urbina
Fernandes vs. Stoliarenko
Brundage vs. McConico