Prime Picks: UFC Shanghai ‘Walker vs. Zhang’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday takes a lap overseas with an early-morning show before it takes the following weekend off. A few roads will lead to Shanghai, with the promotion producing a fairly decent offering, all things considered. We check into as many lines as are reasonable enough at UFC Fight Night 257 inside Shanghai Indoor Stadium.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Brian Ortega (+240)

The former featherweight title challenger is a hefty underdog against ex-bantamweight kingpin Aljamain Sterling, whose best weapon is wrestling. Sterling may set things up with his hands and feet, but he never truly commits to those weapons, as he would much prefer to take the back and get the choke. Not since Hugo Viana in 2014 has Sterling put someone away with strikes, a T.J. Dillashaw shoulder injury notwithstanding. Ortega hits much harder on a strike-for-strike basis, and he would welcome being taken down. It is surprising to see Sterling get this much respect from bettors, given his moneyline and popularity history.

While Sterling was considered to be a sizeable bantamweight with a 71-inch reach, at featherweight, his 5-foot-7 frame is hardly imposing. Ortega will compete as the taller of the two and with a build that is much more becoming of a lightweight making a hard cut down to 146 pounds. Typically, those that have beaten “T-City” have done so by outvoluming him on the feet while not sticking around on the mat for too long. Not since Thiago Tavares a decade ago has someone embraced a full-throated takedown-at-all-costs strategy against the submission grappler, and Sterling doing so might not work in his best interest. With this suddenly turning into a five-round contest, Sterling could tire out the heavier man with his constant activity and pressure. If he thinks he can just hang out in Ortega’s guard, however, he has another thing coming.

PARLAYING & PRAYING

Johnny Walker-Mingyang Zhang Doesn’t Start Round 3 (-570)

Michel Pereira (-270)

Zha Yi-Westin Wilson Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-485)

Total Odds: -106

To put a desirable option together, we combine three extremely likely outcomes to just about reach even money. Initially, we looked at Pereira against the returning Kyle Daukaus, but the strict moneyline itself was a bit too high for our liking. This is much more like it, and it follows the patterns of the combatants to achieve this better line. As far as Walker-Zhang goes, all of Zhang’s wins have come in the first round. Walker, on the other hand, celebrates a 90% stoppage rate, with all but one of his finishes taking place within two rounds. Match up the Brazilian cyclone against the Chinese typhoon, and fans will get their money’s worth, as it should end quickly; and the likelihood of it going longer than 10 minutes is quite minimal.

Pereira takes up the center spot in this three-piece with RC Cola. We will need the caffeine to stay up all night to watch the show stateside, while understanding full well what the European MMA faithful contingent goes through week after exhausting week. “Demolidor” had his middleweight momentum come to a screeching halt when Anthony Hernandez ran him ragged and then put him away in the fifth frame, and a drag of a decision loss to Abusupiyan Magomedov did not help his case at 185 pounds. Against Daukaus, he gets a much-needed step back in competition, even if the American is in for Marco Tulio. In his last stint, the taller Daukaus led with his chin too much, and it is up to him to shore that up for the headhunter he now faces. At these odds, it might not be a price for an outright selection, but it is not crazy to grab that number before it rises even greater.

Utah’s Wilson saved his roster spot a year ago by stopping Jeka Saragih with a triangle armbar, and he kept his spectacular streak of winning within two rounds going right along. He will be stepping into the cage against China’s Yi, a younger man who will search for submissions when they present themselves. This has all the makings of pure chaos, and it should keep the judges well out of play. On paper, Yi may not present the finishing ability that would make him a dangerous threat against anyone in his division, but Wilson is just the foe to tussle with and end things early—or get taken out just as quickly. Either way, as long as it concludes before the midpoint of the third frame, the rest is gravy.